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(Wallace Refiners) – Heading into the European cash open gold (0.32%) and silver (1.33%) are trading higher. There are lots of key data points this week but the main event has to be the US election. At the moment Joe Biden (Democrat) is leading in the polls but some of the key swing states are looking too close to call. According to the New York Times/Siena College polls, Biden leading the race in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and Wisconsin, a quartet of key swing states that Trump carried in 2016. Conversely, FOX News is reporting that Biden’s lead in the polls has narrowed to just 8 points, it does look like this election could go down to the wire.
In other news, the UK public is preparing for a month-long lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The second wave is now seeing infection rates rise above the target levels (1 on the R number scale) and the UK government say they have been forced to act. The lockdown will begin on Thursday and sees the government switch from a more regional approach to moving to add blanket restrictions on the whole nation. GBP is one of the worst-performing currencies leading into the trading week. Keep an eye on more stimulus from the Bank of England as it could be announced to support the economy. Italy may also impose a full lockdown to major hotspots in the coming days. Italian newspaper Corriere stated that the government is switching to a more stringent path after infections continue to rise in the badly affected nation. Belgium has moved into a full lockdown, all non-essential shops are to stay closed until the middle of December.
Despite all the doom and gloom, indices in the Asia-Pac area traded well with the Nikkei 225 (1.41%), ASX (0.40%) and Shanghai Comp. (0.40%) all rising. Data in China showed that factory orders increased to hit the highest point in a decade which boosted the mood overnight. The latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI data for October came in at 53.6 vs the analyst consensus of 53.0.
Looking ahead to the rest of the session, traders will get the latest PMI readings from the major EU nations, UK, Canada and America. There will also be the latest PCE reading from the US and comments from ECB’s Mersch.
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