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(Wallace Refiners) – Gold and silver prices are modestly lower in early morning U.S. trading Monday, on some more mild profit-taking pressure from recent gains and as the safe-have metals see little risk aversion in the global market place at present. August gold futures were last down $4.10 at $1,886.70 and July Comex silver was last down $0.156 at $27.735 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly firmer and European shares flat. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, China’s May exports were up 27.9%, year-on-year, while its imports in May were up 51.1%. Those numbers were not far from market expectations, and reiterate China’s strong rebound from the pandemic.
Other weekend news saw the Group of Seven industrialized nations finance ministers meeting agree to a minimum tax rate of 15% on global corporations, but most agree such is a long way from actually being implemented. Other news saw U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen tell reporters the Biden administration’s spending package would be healthy for the economy, even if it causes higher interest rates and higher inflation.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $69.25 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $70.00 overnight. Interestingly, reports say speculators are making heavy purchases of call options with $100 strike prices on Brent and Nymex crude oil futures, expecting both markets to surpass the $100 mark yet this year. Apparently these traders are calling the options purchases “lottery tickets.” The reports also say it is likely the reddit-style traders who are buying the calls–the traders who also ran Gamestop and AMC shares to unbelievable heights earlier this year. Most oil market veterans think Nymex crude presently at $70 is lofty. Playing the stock market is one thing but trading commodity futures markets is a whole different animal—just ask anyone who has traded both. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.58%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index and consumer installment credit.
Technically, August gold futures bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a nine-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $1,919.20. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,850.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,894.60 and then at $1,900.00. First support is seen at $1,875.00 and then at $1,866.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0
The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a two-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July futures prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $28.90 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. First resistance is seen at $28.00 and then at $28.37. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $27.595 and then at Friday’s low of $27.31. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.
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